On March 11, 2020, the World
Health Organization (WHO) announced that the COVID-19 virus was officially a
pandemic after spreading to 114 countries in three months. By the end of March,
over 823,566 people had been infected and the global death toll touched 40,643.
In Britain, the total number of deaths was 1,789.
At the end of July 2020, there are now more than 300,000 confirmed cases of coronavirus in the UK and over 45,000 people have died although the true figures are likely to be higher. Confirmed cases are now starting to rise again prompting talk of a second wave. This is what happened with Spanish Flu after the First World War when a second wave proved deadlier than the first. While levels of infection are far below their peak, the most recent seven-day average for cases in the UK is 725 - a rise of 25% since 15 July.
The WHO prefers to describe the current situation as "one big wave" making its way across the globe. Prof Paul Hunter, at Norwich Medical School, says for it to be a second wave the virus would have to have gone away completely, so he calls it a "resurgence”.The UK has the highest official
death toll in Europe and the third highest in the world, after the US and
Brazil. However, both countries have much larger populations than the UK and
the number of people who have died per 100,000 people in the UK
is currently higher than for either the US or Brazil.
At least another 130,000 people worldwide have died during the coronavirus pandemic on top of 440,000 officially recorded deaths from the virus, according to BBC research. These so-called "excess deaths", the number of deaths above the average for the period, suggest the human impact of the pandemic far exceeds the official figures reported by governments around the world. The number of deaths in the United Kingdom has been 43% higher than average, with about 64,500 more people dying than usual in the period 7th March to 5th June. So, what can we learn from previous pandemics?
The deadliest plagues are not necessarily the most successful in terms of spread. Between 430 and 426 BC the Plague of Athens was so virulent that it killed off its hosts at a rate faster than it could multiply which prevented the wider spread.The Black Death
The bubonic plague, more commonly
known as the Black Death, arrived on the shores of Europe in October 1347 and
claimed an estimate of over 75 – 200 million lives in Eurasia. Thanks to the
horrors of the plague, better hygiene practices and a push for medical
advancements followed. The disease recurred in England every two to five
years from 1361 to 1480. By the 1370s, England's population was reduced by 50%.
The Deadly Bacteria behind the
Bubonic Plague, Yersinia pestis, was present in black rats and other
rodents and is thought to have been transmitted by parasites living in/on these
animals, especially fleas. In medieval Europe one of the main predators of the
black rat was the cat, domesticated by the ancient Egyptians and introduced on
the continent by the Phoenicians in the ninth century BC. Since then cats lived
with humans and served a role by keeping away rats and other rodents.
In the early thirteenth century
Pope Gregory IX declared that “The evil black cat had fallen from the
clouds bringing unhappiness to man.” Medieval citizens began to believe that it
was safer to exterminate cats – especially the black ones. With the passage
of time, there was an almost widespread killing of cats in many parts of
Europe. The result of this extermination was the rapid increase of rodents,
particularly the "black rat", the main transmitter of the deadly
Black Plague.
A new study carried out by
researchers at the University of Oslo suggests that because black rats may not
be to blame for the outbreak of the bubonic plague in Europe after all. According
to the research team, repeated plague epidemics were caused by another rodent:
the gerbilino or gerbil from Asia. Too late, alas, for the 200,000 or so cats
that gave their lives in the interests of public health.
Modern sanitation and
public-health practices have greatly diminished the impact of the disease but
have not eliminated it. Although antibiotics are available to treat the Black
Death, according to The World Health Organization, there are still 1,000 to
3,000 cases of plague every year.
Spanish Influenza
The so-called Spanish flu, which
raged from 1918 to 1920, infected 500 million people around the world. It
became a pandemic on three different occasions and killed 40 million between
1918 to 1919. Medical progress and vaccination development followed helping to
control and combat the spread of the virus.
Asian flu -1957
Starting in Hong Kong in 1957,
the Asian flu became widespread in England where, over six months, 14,000
people died. A second wave followed in early 1958, causing an estimated total
of about 1.1 million deaths globally. A vaccine was developed, effectively
containing the pandemic.
HIV/AIDS - 1981
First identified in 1981, AIDS
destroys a person’s immune system, resulting in eventual death by diseases that
the body would usually fight off. Treatments have been developed to slow the
progress of the disease, but 35 million people worldwide have died of AIDS
since its discovery, and a cure is yet to be found.
2003: SARS
In 2003, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) infected 8,096 people and resulted in 774 deaths. Quarantine efforts proved effective and by July, the virus was contained and has not reappeared since.
Conclusion
As the number of new coronavirus
infections and deaths continue to grow, life has changed radically. Quarantine
measures have been imposed to try and limit the spread of the disease as in
previous centuries. Throughout history, plagues and diseases have returned in
waves, sometimes with even greater ferocity. High hopes hang on the early
development of a vaccine and effective treatments but this by no means certain.
Meanwhile, the likely impact of the pandemic on the world economy scarcely
bears thinking about. These are unprecedented times for everyone, but the one
thing we must not lose is hope.
For more information see:
(1) https://letterfromballinloughane.blogspot.com/2020/03/plague-and-pestilence-past-and-present.html
(2) https://letterfromballinloughane.blogspot.com/2020/04/the-black-death-in-ireland.html
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